The following charts show the mid-air collision risk estimate of each region over the period from January 2023 - December 2023. Each data point represents the 12-month cumulative risk estimate ending in each month shown on the x-axis. The results of safety assessments compared against the accepted target level of safety (TLS) will provide RPGs with an indication of the current risk within the airspace in which an assessment was undertaken.

Full details of the analysis is presented in Working Papers of RASMAG/29 Meeting, which is available on ICAO APAC website here.

Risk Estimates for South Asia/Indian Ocean Airspace (SA/IO) airspace

In 2023, a total of 254 LHDs were recorded. Of these, 44 out of 148 LHDs were of non-zero duration, contributing to the risk. The operational and total risk in 2023 showed an upward trend. The total risk increased dramatically by more than 130%, rising from 1.75 x 10^-9 FAPFH in 2022 to 4.05 x 10^-9 FAPFH in 2023. Despite this increase, the total risk remains below the specified TLS.

Risk Estimates for Southeast Asian Airspace (SEA) Airspace

In 2023, a total of 95 LHDs were recorded. Of these, 23 were of non-zero duration, contributing to the overall risk. Both operational and total risk showed an upward trend during the year. Total risk increased by 59%, rising from 1.83 x 10^-9 FAPFH in 2022 to 2.91 x 10^-9 FAPFH in 2023. However, the total risk remained below the specified TLS.

Risk Estimates for Mongolian Airspace

In 2023, no LHD was reported within or at the boundary of the Mongolian Airspace. Hence, the analysis of operational errors cannot be conducted. As a result, the total risk was estimated as 0.58 x 10^-9 FAPFH which was below the TLS of 5 x 10^-9 FAPFH.

Hot Spots

There are six hot spots in SA/IO and SEA airspace as shown below.

The turquoise lines represent west-bound traffic movements while the orange lines represent east-bound traffic movements. The navy dotted line represents the frequency of occurrences at the labeled waypoint. The color of each circle represents the sum of minutes at incorrect flight level and the number of flight levels crossed without clearance (darker color represents highervalue). The area of the circle represents the sum of operational risk associated with LHDs occurring at or near the labeled waypoint.

SA/IO Airspace

LHD Hot Spot G (Mumbai/Muscat/Sanaa and Mumbai) and LHD Hot Spot F (Mogadishu/Mumbai)

The total number of LHDs, the number of non-zero-duration LHDs, and the operational risk at Hot Spots G and F significantly increased from 2021 to 2023, particularly at the Mumbai-Muscat FIR boundary. In 2023, the number of LHDs nearly reached the levels recorded in 2019, a year marked by high traffic levels before the significant reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the operational risk remained relatively low, supported by the implementation of Space-Based ADS-B, which enhances surveillance capabilities.

LHD Hot Spot A1 (Dhaka/Kolkata/Yangon) and LHD Hot Spot A2 (Chennai/Kuala Lumpur)

In 2023, the number of LHDs in Hot Spots A1 and A2 decreased, and the operational risk remained relatively low. Safety improvement initiatives, including enhanced surveillance by Indian Space-Based ADS-B and the implementation of AIDC between Chennai ACC and Kuala Lumpur ACC, have been successfully implemented. As a result, Hot Spot A2 has been removed from the hot spot list. However, the AIDC between Kolkata ACC and Yangon ACC, as well as between Chennai ACC and Yangon ACC, has not yet been fully implemented. Therefore, Hot Spot A1 remain on the hot spot list.

SEA Airspace

Hot Spot D1 to D9 (Manila and all adjacent FIRs)

APAC monitoring agencies agreed to subdivide Hot Spot D into nine interfaces (D1 to D9). Following the promoted safety improvement activities, Hot Spots D2, D3, D4, D6, and D9 have been removed from the hot spot list. However, D1, D5, D7, and D8 remain on the list and should continue to be monitored until further safety improvement initiatives, such as AIDC, are implemented.

LHD Hot Spot J (Jakarta/Kota Kinabalu/Singapore)

In 2023, the number of LHDs and the operational risk at the Singapore-Jakarta FIR boundary nearly doubled, after a slight decrease in 2022. Nevertheless, the number of LHDs remains high compared to other areas in the SEA airspace. To address this, Indonesia and Singapore are actively working on implementing AIDC and redesigning the FIR boundary, aiming to mitigate coordination errors stemming from human factors issues at this hotspot.

LHD Hot Spot O (Bangkok/Ho Chi Minh/Kuala Lumpur/Singapore)

In 2023, The number of LHDs and operational risk slightly decrease from 2022. However, the operational risk at this area was 28% of the total operational risk in SEA Airspace. The operational risk of Hot Spot O is contributed by 3 non-zero-duration LHDs, which were the negative transfer from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore at TIDAR waypoint.