The following charts show the mid-air collision risk estimate of each region over the period from January 2022 - December 2022. Each data point represents the 12-month cumulative risk estimate ending in each month shown on the x-axis. The results of safety assessments compared against the accepted target level of safety (TLS) will provide RPGs with an indication of the current risk within the airspace in which an assessment was undertaken.

Full details of the analysis is presented in Working Papers of RASMAG/28 Meeting, which is available on ICAO APAC website here.

Risk Estimates for South Asia/Indian Ocean Airspace (SA/IO) airspace

In 2022, there were a total of 148 LHDs. However, out of the 148 LHDs, 16 were non-zero-duration, which contributed to the risk. The overall risk in the SA/IO airspace, at 1.75 x 10^-9 FAPFH, was below the TLS of 5 x 10^-9 FAPFH for the first year.

Risk Estimates for Southeast Asian Airspace (SEA) Airspace

In 2022, there were a total of 63 LHDs. However, out of the 63 LHDs, 19 were non-zero-duration, which contributed to the risk. The overall risk in the SEA airspace, at 1.83 x 10^-9 FAPFH which, remained below the TLS of 5 x 10^-9 FAPFH.

Risk Estimates for Mongolian Airspace

In 2022, no LHD was reported within or at the boundary of the Mongolian Airspace. Hence, the analysis of operational errors cannot be conducted. As a result, the total risk was estimated as 0.33 x 10^-9 FAPFH which was below the TLS of 5 x 10^-9 FAPFH.

Hot Spots

There are six hot spots in SA/IO and SEA airspace as shown below.

The turquoise lines represent west-bound traffic movements while the orange lines represent east-bound traffic movements. The navy dotted line represents the frequency of occurrences at the labeled waypoint. The color of each circle represents the sum of minutes at incorrect flight level and the number of flight levels crossed without clearance (darker color represents highervalue). The area of the circle represents the sum of operational risk associated with LHDs occurring at or near the labeled waypoint.

SA/IO Airspace

LHD Hot Spot G (Sanaa/Muscat and Mumbai) and LHD Hot Spot F (Mogadishu and Mumbai)

Despite a partial recovery in traffic, the total number of LHDs at Hot Spot G and F in 2022 closely resembled the figures from 2020 and 2021. However, both the total duration and the associated operational risk consistently decreased. The decreasing trend was potentially due to the traffic reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic and the implementation of Space-Based ADS-B in February 2020.

LHD Hot Spot A1 (Dhaka/Kolkata and Yangon) and LHD Hot Spot A2 (Chennai and Kuala Lumpur)

In 2022, the number of LHDs in these two hotspots increased, but only one was non-zero-duration, posing a low operational risk. The increase in the number of LHDs was due to recovering traffic, potentially increasing controller workload and human error. However, RASMAG/28 meeting proposed Hot Spot A2 as a non-hotspot due to the small number of LHDs and associated risks. Additionally, successful mitigation measures have been implemented, such as Space-based ADS-B and AIDC between Chennai and Kuala Lumpur ACCs.

SEA Airspace

Hot Spot D (Manila and all adjacent FIRs)

The number of LHDs and operational risk have shown continuous improvement over the past several years, driven by safety initiatives that include the new Philippines ATM system, enhanced surveillance capabilities, the implementation of ADS-C/CPDLC, and partial adoption of AIDC. Furthermore, the Philippines revealed that they conducted multiple training sessions for controllers and coordinated meetings with Japan to develop mitigations for this hotspot.

LHD Hot Spot J (Singapore/Kota Kinabalu-Jakarta)

The number of LHDs and operational risk at the Singapore-Jakarta boundary slightly decreased in 2022. Nevertheless, the number of LHDs remains high compared to other areas in the SEA airspace. To address this, AirNav Indonesia is actively working on implementing AIDC, aiming to mitigate coordination errors stemming from human factors issues at this hotspot.

LHD Hot Spot O (Bangkok/Ho Chi Minh/Kuala Lumpur and Singapore)

In 2022, the number of LHDs at the boundaries between Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh, Kuala Lumpur, and Singapore FIRs increased. All LHDs were categorized as Category E. Among these, there were 5 non-zero-duration LHDs, contributing to 51% of the total operational risk in SEA Airspace. During the RASMAG/28 meeting, it was proposed to include these boundaries on the hot spot list as Hot Spot O.