The following charts present the mid-air collision risk estimate for each region over the period January–December 2024. Each data point represents the 12-month cumulative risk estimate ending in the corresponding month shown on the x-axis. The results of the safety assessments, when compared against the accepted Target Level of Safety (TLS), provide RPGs with an indication of the current risk within the assessed airspace.

Full details of the analysis are presented in the Working Papers of the RASMAG/30 Meeting, available on the ICAO APAC website here.

Risk Estimates for South Asia/Indian Ocean (SA/IO) Airspace

The operational and total risks in 2024 showed a downward trend, remaining below the TLS. The trend was steady from January to August 2024, followed by a sharp decrease in the last four months. The total risk decreased from 4.05 x 10^-9 FAPFH in 2023 to 2.21 x 10^-9 FAPFH in 2024, below the specified TLS of 5 x 10^-9

Risk Estimates for Southeast Asia (SEA) Airspace

The operational and total risks in 2024 showed a slight downward trend. Compared with 2023, the total risk in 2024 decreased to 2.54 x 10^-9 FAPFH, remaining below the TLS of 5 x 10^-9 FAPFH.

Risk Estimates for Mongolian Airspace

In 2024, no LHDs were reported within or at the boundary of Mongolian airspace. Hence, an analysis of operational errors could not be conducted. As a result, the total risk was estimated at 0.72 x 10^-9 FAPFH.

Hot Spots

There are currently nine areas identified as Hot Spots within SA/IO and SEA airspace, as shown below.

- Turquoise lines represent westbound traffic movements.

- Orange lines represent eastbound traffic movements.

- The navy dotted line indicates the frequency of occurrences at that waypoint.

- The color intensity of each circle represents the cumulative minutes at incorrect flight levels and the number of flight level crossings without clearance (darker shades represent higher values).

- The area of each circle corresponds to the total operational risk associated with LHDs at or near that waypoint.

SA/IO Airspace

Hot Spot A1 (Chennai/Dhaka/Kolkata/Yangon)

The number of LHDs has continuously decreased in recent years. Additionally, no operational risk was observed, supported by the implementation of Space-Based ADS-B, which enhances surveillance capabilities. However, safety improvement activities (specifically AIDC) have not yet been initiated.

Hot Spot G1 (Mumbai/Muscat) and Hot Spot G2 (Mumbai/Sanaa)

In 2024, Hot Spot G was separated into G1 and G2 to enhance monitoring and reporting efficiency. The number of LHDs at both Hot Spots slightly decreased. Moreover, operational risk dramatically declined after the implementation of Space-Based ADS-B. However, LHDs at Hot Spot G1 still account for the majority of those in SA/IO airspace, and AIDC implementation or other mitigation measures have not yet been completed to further reduce them.

Hot Spot F (Mogadishu/Mumbai)

The number of LHDs at Hot Spot F slightly decreased, and operational risk remained at a low level. However, safety improvement activities (specifically AIDC) have not yet been initiated.

SEA Airspace

Hot Spot D1 (Fukuoka/Manila)

The number of LHDs and the associated operational risk have decreased to a low level. In 2024, Fukuoka and Manila ACCs actively collaborated and agreed to adjust the timing for sending transfer information from Manila to Fukuoka ACC, from 30 minutes to 20 minutes prior to the estimated boundary crossing. This change reduces complexity by ensuring the transfer is coordinated within a single sector rather than across two. Therefore, Hot Spot D1 is proposed as a potential non-hotspot. If it does not meet hotspot criteria again in 2025, D1 may be removed from the list.

Hot Spot D5 (Ho Chi Minh/Manila)

In 2024, the number of LHDs and operational risk slightly increased. Mitigation measures, such as the implementation of AIDC, have not yet been initiated at D5.

Hot Spot D7 (Kota Kinabalu/Manila)

In 2024, the number of LHDs slightly increased, while operational risk slightly decreased. AIDC implementation between Kota Kinabalu and Manila ACC is currently in the operational trial phase, with full implementation expected in Q4 2025.

Hot Spot D8 (Manila/Ujung Pandang)

In 2024, both the number of LHDs and operational risk significantly decreased. AIDC has been successfully in operation since 2020 as a mitigation measure. Thus, Hot Spot D8 is proposed as a potential non-hotspot. If it does not meet hotspot criteria in 2025, Hot Spot D8 may be removed from the list.

Hot Spot J (Jakarta/Singapore)

On 21 March 2024, the FIR boundary between Jakarta and Singapore was realigned to improve traffic flow management. Consequently, the number of LHDs and operational risk decreased significantly. Therefore, Hot Spot J is proposed as a potential non-hotspot. If it does not meet hotspot criteria in 2025, Hot Spot J may be removed from the list.

Hot Spot O (Bangkok/Ho Chi Minh/Kuala Lumpur/Singapore)

In 2024, both the number of LHDs and operational risk decreased compared with 2023. However, no mitigation measures have been initiated.