Risk Estimates

The following charts show the mid-air collision risk estimate of each region over the period from January 2016 - December 2016. Each data point represents the 12-month cumulative risk estimate ending in each month shown on the x-axis. The results of safety assessments compared against the accepted target level of safety (TLS) will provide RPGs with an indication of the current risk within the airspace in which an assessment was undertaken.

Full details of the analysis is presented in Working Papers of RASMAG/22 Meeting, which is available on ICAO APAC website here.

Risk Estimates for WPAC/SCS Airspace

The overall risk in the WPAC/SCS airspace was 9.44 x 10-9 FAPFH which exceeds the total TLS of 5 x 10-9 FAPFH. In 2016, there were 363 LHD reports and 131 LHDs were risk-bearing.

Risk Estimates for BOBASIO Airspace

The overall risk in the BOBASIO airspace was 27.75 x 10-9 FAPFH which exceeds the total TLS of 5 x 10-9 FAPFH. In 2016, there were 758 LHD reports and 140 LHDs were risk-bearing.

Risk Estimates for Mongolian Airspace

The overall risk in Mongolian airspace region was below the TLS and there was no LHD report in the Mongolian airspace in 2016.

Hotspots

There are three main hotspots in BOBASIO and WPAC/SCS airspace as shown below.

The first hotspot is the western boundary of Mumbai FIR interfacing with Muscat, Sana, and Mogadishu FIR, which has been identified as a hotspot since 2015. The risk estimate of this hotspot was dominated by long duration LHDs, with the longest LHD lasting for almost 2 hours. LHDs in this area went undetected for a long time due to absence of surveillance and poor communication. Most LHDs were caused by breakdown in ATC-to-ATC transfer of control responsibility due to human factor issues (Cat E LHD).

The second hotspot is the eastern boundary of Kolkata and Chennai FIRs interfacing with Yangon and Kuala Lumpur FIRs, which has been identified as a hotspot since 2013. There were many LHDs reported in the area and most of them were Cat E (breakdown in ATC-to-ATC coordination). Due to good surveillance coverage, most LHDs had short and moderate duration and some did not have risk associated with them. However, these incidents might be an indicator of underlying systematic problems and might impact ATCO’s workload. It is still recommended that States conduct investigation to uncover root causes of these LHDs.

The last hotspot is the northern, western, and southern boundary of Manila FIR, which has been a hotspot since 2014. LHDs in this hotspot were caused by various conditions ranging from inaccurate time estimate from flight crew to error in ATC to ATC coordination, and were originated from both Manila ACC and its neighboring ACCs.